Muslim Population Growth

In 1900, the Muslim population stood at just 200 million, representing 12% of the global population. Driven by high birth rates in Muslim-majority countries, this percentage has risen over the past century, reaching approximately 25%—or 2 billion people—by 2025. According to Pew Research projections, this figure is expected to reach around 2.2 billion by 2030 and 2.8 billion by 2050, accounting for 30% of the world’s population. This implies that, in terms of population size, Islam will be nearly on par with Christianity by 2050. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_population_growth) 

Reasons for the rapid growth of the Muslim population worldwide: 

Reason#1: Fertility 

Rapid fertility and early onset of childbearing among Muslims.  

High fertility rate. Muslim women have an average of 2.9 children; this is higher than the average for other major religious groups and the non-Muslim average (2.2). 

Early childbearing. In societies and countries with large Muslim populations, a significant number of Muslim women are married as early as age 12, after which childbearing begins. However, a large percentage of Muslim women marry and begin childbearing between the ages of 18 and 21. Early childbearing coupled with high fertility rate is the primary reason for rapid growth of the Muslim population. 

Reason#2: Religious conversions 

Conversions to Islam from other faiths, mainly from Western Christians, is taking place.  

Reasons why many people, especially those in Western countries, embrace Islam: 

The portrayal of God (Allah) in Quran in a manner easily grasped by the limited human intellect—specifically as a singular, solitary, and lonely entity.  

The belief—often held irrationally against evidence—that not a single letter of the Quran, Islam’s spiritual scripture, has undergone any alteration or modification over the past 1,400 years.  

Islamic religious practices and observances that appear simple, meaningful, and well-structured.  

Claims regarding “miracles” within the Quran—often propagated by Islamic preachers—that are factually incorrect or misleading.  

Most importantly, the relentless negative propaganda against the Bible and the Christian faith carried out by Islamic preachers. A vast number of people within Christianity—the world’s largest religion—are merely “nominal” Christians lacking any solid spiritual foundation.  

The encouragement of conversions through incentives, special privileges, and gifts offered by Dawah preachers, Islamic speakers, and the governments of Muslim-majority nations in addition to forced conversions are noteworthy in the historical annals of Islamic expansion.  

Approximately 20,000 Americans embrace Islam annually (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_population_growth). Interestingly, there appears to be a near-balance in the United States between those converting to Islam and those leaving the faith; statistics from the Pew Research Centre reveal that the number of Americans embracing Islam is roughly equal to the number of American Muslims leaving the religion. 

Reason#3: Hiding of apostasy attrition 

Almost every place where Islam is growing—both biologically and through conversion, including its birthplace, Saudi Arabia—the religion is also bleeding out. Apostasy, or the rise of Ex-Muslims, has become a significant phenomenon within Muslim communities across the globe.

Social pressures, family rejection, and harsh laws regarding apostasy (which include the death penalty in some regions) are the primary reasons why those who have left Islam choose not to make it public. Furthermore, the risk of losing family inheritance, alongside the fear of death from honour killings or state-sanctioned execution, serve as the main levers that control and conceal the true number of apostates within the Muslim population. 

According to The New York Times, approximately 25 percent of American Muslims are converts. In Britain, about 6,000 people convert to Islam annually; a June 2000 report by the British Muslims Monthly Survey indicated that the majority of new converts in Britain were women. Notably, however, between 70% and 80% of those who convert to Islam in European countries like England leave Islam within the first five years. 

Data from the General Social Survey in the United States shows that 32 percent of those raised as Muslims do not practice Islam in adulthood, while 18 percent hold no religious affiliation. Among converts to Islam, 77% came from a Christian background, whereas 19% had no prior religious affiliation. In contrast, 55% of Muslims who left Islam became unaffiliated with any religion, and 22% embraced Christianity. 

A BBC article focusses on the decline of religiosity across Arab world. According to the summary of the research referenced in the article, “Since 2013, the number of people across the region identifying as “not religious” has risen from 8% to 13%. The rise is greatest in the under 30s, among whom 18% identify as not religious, according to the research. Only Yemen saw a fall in the category.” (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48703377)

Missionary researcher David Garrison estimated that between 2 million and 7 million Muslims converted to Christianity globally over a two-decade span, averaging out to hundreds of thousands or over a million conversions per year. The majority conversions from Islam to Christianity took place in North Africa, Central Asia, Persian world, Bangladesh and Indonesia. Researchers concluded that more Muslims embraced Christianity in the last forty years alone than the rest of the fourteen centuries put together.

Interestingly, converts from Christianity to Islam face minimal opposition, whereas those converting from Islam to Christianity face extreme obstacles, including persecution and death. Thus, the personal toll of converting from Islam to Christianity is significantly higher and can therefore be deemed more authentic and genuine.